By Raymond Tan
As we move to the end of 2020,
a consensus across most research analysts is that while the coronavirus pandemic
has slowed global commercialisation of 5G, the roll-out is continuing, with
leading governments, countries and regions still pushing forward with the next
generation of mobile internet.
Globally, various isolation
measures have made it more difficult to deploy 5G base stations. Some countries
have announced the extension of 5G spectrum bidding plans which has also
reduced consumers' willingness to adopt 5G.
The US,
China, South Korea and Japan are the countries that lead the way in 5G’s
commercial roll-out.
Here’s a summary of key findings on 5G’s progress across
the key regions and countries:
Asia-Pacific: By 2025, 50% of the total global 5G
connections will be in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region and the US, predicted
Frost & Sullivan. The APAC region is a key driver of adoption, with strong
collaboration between local governments and industry players enabling many successful
deployments in 2020.
In South Korea and China,
where 5G deployments are case studies for the world, the relevant spectrum band
was already allocated in June 2018 and 2019, ahead of many other countries.
These cross-industry
collaborations in the APAC region have resulted in a more cohesive ecosystem
for these industries, significantly driving the deployments of 5G. For example,
with the Covid-19 pandemic accelerating the use of 5G in the healthcare market,
AIS, an operator in Thailand, launched 5G-enabled robots in hospitals to
provide remote care for Covid-19 patients.
South Korea: South Korea has established itself as the early
market-leader for 5G development with funding from various private and public
entities, according to market researcher Valuates.
It is expected that most of
upcoming investments in the country will concentrate on the implementation of
next-generation media and entertainment infrastructure, transport and
logistics, healthcare, and manufacturing.
Japan: NTT Docomo, Softbank and KDDI – Japan’s three largesttelcos – all launched5G earlier this year. There has been limited impact from the
coronavirus as the telcos were ahead of schedule in building the necessary
infrastructure, although some negotiations for new base stations could be
postponed. For example, Rakuten has postponed the launch of its 5G mobile
network to the last quarter of 2020.
China: China is ahead and has emerged as one of the
most active 5G-promoting countries. The country is projected to be one of the
top four markets driving 5G growth in Asia, and has taken an approach of ‘build first, and
then applications will come’.
Significant subsidies have
been provided to grow the ecosystem and 5G spectrum was awarded to China
Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom in June last year. The first 5G networks
went live in November 2019.
China is projected to become the largest 5G market
in the world by end-December 2020, with an estimated 600,000 sites ready.
India: All the major telcos – Reliance
Jio, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone-Idea – are partnering with various equipment
vendors for trials this year and to test out the kind of services that could be
made available. 5G will be the significant upgrade since mobile telephony
started in India, back in the mid-1990s.
5G
auctions are expected to be held by early 2021. A big concern among the telcos
is the high reserve prices of auctions, much higher than in other countries
around the world.
Europe: The 5G development market is improving the
usability of M2M/IoT connections and the rise in demand for mobile broadband services
in Europe.
However, the slow speed of digitisation is hindering 5G’s growth
This is compounded by the
lack of clarity in the EU roadmap for 5G, lack of affordable spectrum and slow
pace of spectrum auctions due to the pandemic restricting auctions to online or
on-site with strict precautionary measures in place.
Restrictions that some governments have imposed on
Huawei have affected operators who are now forced to re-negotiate and look for
alternative equipment providers.
The US: The introduction of 5G is expected to bring
about massive transformations in the US technology, media and telecom
industries. Although the country is making strides in promoting the 5G industry
with new spectrum allocations, operators are still searching for enterprise
applications that will make 5G profitable.
They are now swopping 4G
RANs with 5G RANs as an inexpensive way to boost 5G smartphone adoption.
As a reference, 4G growth was
driven largely by higher use of both voice and messaging services, leading to
more user engagement and higher data use levels. 5G is expected to have the
same, if not a larger, impact.
5G still a game-changer
Across
the board, while some deployments have been delayed, 5G as a game-changing
technology has moved from drawing board to reality.
ABI Research reported that
114 5G networks were already up and running globally as at end-June 2020.
5G-capable handsets are being made available from Samsung, Apple, Huawei, and others,
which will further prime the amount of traffic being generated.
APB+ firmly believes that 5G will continue to be a compelling proposition offering
lower latency, higher capacity and increased bandwidth, enabling greater
flexibility and cost reductions and making viable applications that cannot be operated
using current wireless technologies.
However, this will take a
little more time as Covid-19 lingers on. For mobile carriers, network
implementation will require significant investments and be phased, with each
operator developing its own timeline, strategies and options. The architectural
transformation will be complex and multi-layered, requiring public and private
networks and spectrum sectors working in aggregate globally.
Get rolling, go with the
flow …